Global Story (BBC) Are We Heading for World War III? An excellent interview with historian Margaret Macmillan, who has done a lot of work on wars and peace, particularly related to World War I. Drawing from history, she explains that wars are often influenced by emotions of leaders – pride, ego, fear etc. and sometimes they start by accident e.g. the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was surrounded by contingencies and ‘what ifs’. A war can spread quickly across continents because of treaties and agreements. In the context of the current US/Israeli/Iranian war, the economic effects will involve countries across the world, but she doubts that China will become involved in a military action. She notes that there is a problem of sunk costs- that once there has been loss of life, it is hard to stop fighting (I’m thinking here of Ukraine). She describes situations when war didn‘t happen- e.g. in the 1983 when Russia shot down Korean Airlines 007 by accident, and another situation where Russia thought that 1983 US-UK war games were the real thing. In this case, the protagonists picked up the phones and gave reassurance. She hopes that we haven’t already embarked on WWIII, although Ukraine thinks that it has. She reminds us that since 1945 there has been a war every year, and she reminds us that because we have become smug about peace, we have not spent enough money keeping our defences up. Really interesting.
The Rest is History Episode 407 The Nazis in Power: The Conquest of Austria (Part 4). From their website:
By 1937, Hitler’s ever-growing ambitions were driving Europe to the brink of war. Ever restless, he knew that Germany must conquer the world, or be destroyed. His first target was Austria, his homeland, whose annexation to Germany would unite German blood under one indomitable Reich. However, in an effort to avoid Nazi rule, the Austrian Chancellor, Kurt Schuschnigg, called a referendum on annexation, to show the Austrian people’s will against it. Hitler’s reaction was one of rage, and on the morning of Friday, the 11th of March, 1938, he sent an ultimatum to Vienna. At 5.30am the next day, the German army crossed into Austria. It was met by great cheering crowds, and Hitler’s arrival in Vienna was one of true apotheosis… Yet the darkness at the heart of Hitler’s European dream was also emerging, as the Nazis began to detain and repress Austrian minorities, particularly the Jewish population, on an unprecedented scale.
This episode starts with one of Tom’s musical “renditions”, this time of ‘Edelweiss’ from The Sound of Music, although as they point out at the end of the episode, the Von Trapps didn’t actually escape by climbing the Alps, but went to Italy by train, thanks largely to the fact to that they were rich and not Jewish. By now Hitler was animated by a sense of mission, and he saw 1943-5 as the window of action. However, the generals were less enthusiastic about Hitler’s plans for Austria and Czechoslovakia, uneasy about the recklessness of his action and their lack of preparation. But the top generals were sacked for various reasons, and replaced by yes-men. Hitler had attempted to foment a coup earlier in 1933, but he was warned off by Mussolini. But by 1937 Mussolini was more ambivalent, and so Hitler went into action. Hitler’s arrival in Austria was a very emotional occasion for him- we forget Hitler’s emotional, sentimental side- as it was his home country. We are reminded that Austria had always been anti-Semitic, and the round up of the Jews began very quickly.
Empire Episode 343 Lebanon: Hezbollah, Israel and Fifty Years as a Battleground. In this episode Lebanese historian and author of Black Wave, Kim Ghattas talks about the past fifty years of Lebanon’s history. She reminds us that, as a nation, Lebanon is only young, having been created in the breakup of the Ottoman empire after WWI. It was under the French mandate until 1943, and the decision was made to add Sunni and Shia populations within its borders. Lebanon has always looked to outside influences: the Sunnis looked to Saudi Arabia, the Shia to Iran and the Christians to France and the US. In 1982 the Maronite Christians invited Israel in, but Israel went much further than their supposed 40 km incursion. Arafat left and went into exile. Israel got a taste for expansion and developed a doctrine of Greater Israel, overturning the Sykes-Picot agreement, something that Iran was always going to oppose. And we’re seeing the fruits of this today.
The Resident Judge of Port Phillip 